Plurigaussian modeling of geological domains based on the truncation of non-stationary Gaussian random fields     

Nasser?Madani  Xavier?EmeryEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(4):893-913

The plurigaussian model is used in mining engineering, oil reservoir characterization, hydrology and environmental sciences to simulate the layout of geological domains in the subsurface, while reproducing their spatial continuity and dependence relationships. However, this model is well-established only in the stationary case, when the spatial distribution of the domains is homogeneous in space, and suffers from theoretical and practical impediments in the non-stationary case. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes extending the model to the truncation of intrinsic random fields of order k with Gaussian generalized increments, which allows reproducing spatial trends in the distribution of the geological domains. Methodological tools and algorithms are presented to infer the model parameters and to construct realizations of the geological domains conditioned to existing data. The proposal is illustrated with the simulation of rock type domains in an ore deposit in order to demonstrate its applicability. Despite the limited number of conditioning data, the results show a remarkable agreement between the simulated domains and the lithological model interpreted by geologists, while the conventional stationary plurigaussian model turns out to be unsuccessful.  相似文献   

Spatial-temporal characteristics of epidemic spread in-out flow——Using SARS epidemic in Beijing as a case study     

HU BiSong  GONG JianHua  ZHOU JiePing  SUN Jun  YANG LiYang  XIA Yu  Abdoul Nasser IBRAHIM 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2013,(8):1380-1397

For better detecting the spatial-temporal change mode of individual susceptible-infected-symptomatic-treated-recovered epidemic progress and the characteristics of information/material flow in the epidemic spread network between regions,the epidemic spread mechanism of virus input and output was explored based on individuals and spatial regions.Three typical spatial information parameters including working unit/address,onset location and reporting unit were selected and SARS epidemic spread in-out flow in Beijing was defined based on the SARS epidemiological investigation data in China from 2002 to 2003 while its epidemiological characteristics were discussed.Furthermore,by the methods of spatial-temporal statistical analysis and network characteristic analysis,spatial-temporal high-risk hotspots and network structure characteristics of Beijing outer in-out flow were explored,and spatial autocorrelation/heterogeneity,spatial-temporal evolutive rules and structure characteristics of the spread network of Beijing inner in-out flow were comprehensively analyzed.The results show that(1)The outer input flow of SARS epidemic in Beijing concentrated on Shanxi and Guangdong provinces,but the outer output flow was disperse and mainly includes several north provinces such as Guangdong and Shandong.And the control measurement should focus on the early and interim progress of SARS breakout.(2)The inner output cases had significant positive autocorrelative characteristics in the whole studied region,and the high-risk population was young and middle-aged people with ages from 20 to 60 and occupations of medicine and civilian labourer.(3)The downtown districts were main high-risk hotspots of SARS epidemic in Beijing,the northwest suburban districts/counties were secondary high-risk hotspots,and northeast suburban areas were relatively safe.(4)The district/county nodes in inner spread network showed small-world characteristics and information/material flow had notable heterogeneity.The suburban Tongzhou and Changping districts were the underlying high-risk regions,and several suburban districts such as Shunyi and Huairou were the relatively low-risk safe regions as they carried out minority information/material flow.The exploration and analysis based on epidemic spread in-out flow help better detect and discover the potential spatial-temporal evolutive rules and characteristics of SARS epidemic,and provide a more effective theoretical basis for emergency/control measurements and decision-making.  相似文献   

Application of sequential Gaussian simulation to quantify the surface wave magnitude uncertainty within the faulted regions     

Amir Barzegari  Nasser Madani Esfahani  Omid Asghari 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(8):2991-3010

Geostatistical simulations have been recently widely used in the geological and mining investigations. Variogram, the fundamental tools of geostatistics, can identify the spatial distribution of the regionalized variable within the area. One of the important issues of geostatistical simulation in seismotectonics is producing uncertainty maps, which could be applicable to predict earthquake parameters through the site locations especially for civil structures like bridges. It can help engineers to design the structure of interest better. Earthquake parameters as for example seismic fault and surface wave magnitude (Ms) have significant impact on the feasibility study of the civil structures. In this research, a method is presented to produce uncertainty maps for seismic fault and surface wave magnitude, Ms. For this aim, information related to surface wave magnitude and fault trace in Zagros region (SW of Iran) has been collected. Then, the relationships between them through the site location have been investigated and analyzed by conditional geostatistical simulation. In order to quantify the uncertainty of each parameter, the uncertainty formula after generating the E-type maps has been provided and discussed. Finally, in “Talgah Bridge” site, these uncertainty maps were produced to interpret the impact of the surface wave magnitude and fault trace in this specific civil structure.  相似文献   

Erratum to: A new approach for the geological risk evaluation of coal resources through a geostatistical simulation     

Omid Asghari  Nasser Madani Esfahani 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(2):839-839

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Categorization of Mineral Resources Based on Different Geostatistical Simulation Algorithms: A Case Study from an Iron Ore Deposit     

Battalgazy  Nurassyl  Madani  Nasser 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(4):1329-1351

Mineral resource classification plays an important role in the downstream activities of a mining project. Spatial modeling of the grade variability in a deposit directly impacts the evaluation of recovery functions, such as the tonnage, metal quantity and mean grade above cutoffs. The use of geostatistical simulations for this purpose is becoming popular among practitioners because they produce statistical parameters of the sample dataset in cases of global distribution (e.g., histograms) and local distribution (e.g., variograms). Conditional simulations can also be assessed to quantify the uncertainty within the blocks. In this sense, mineral resource classification based on obtained realizations leads to the likely computation of reliable recovery functions, showing the worst and best scenarios. However, applying the proper geostatistical (co)-simulation algorithms is critical in the case of modeling variables with strong cross-correlation structures. In this context, enhanced approaches such as projection pursuit multivariate transforms (PPMTs) are highly desirable. In this paper, the mineral resources in an iron ore deposit are computed and categorized employing the PPMT method, and then, the outputs are compared with conventional (co)-simulation methods for the reproduction of statistical parameters and for the calculation of tonnage at different levels of cutoff grades. The results show that the PPMT outperforms conventional (co)-simulation approaches not only in terms of local and global cross-correlation reproductions between two underlying grades (Fe and Al₂O₃) in this iron deposit but also in terms of mineral resource categories according to the Joint Ore Reserves Committee standard.

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Statistical Optimization of Anaerobic Biological Processes for Dye Treatment     

Zahra Khalili  Babak Bonakdarpour 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2010,38(10):942-950

In the present study both the synthetic media composition as well as some process parameters in the anaerobic decolorization of Reactive Black 5 (RB5) by activated sludge were studied and optimized using statistical design of experiments (DOEs). Statistical analysis of the results of Plackett–Burman DOE showed that the addition of Mn or Fe, or increase in concentration of Mg, had a positive effect on the anaerobic decolorization efficiency whereas the effect of increase in concentration of glucose, ammonium chloride, and calcium chloride was negative. The effect of change in the concentration of glucose, mixed liquor suspended solid (MLSS), and RB5 on the anaerobic decolorization efficiency and rate and chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal was studied using central composite design methodology. Statistical analysis of the data showed that all the factors had significant effect on both the dye decolorization efficiency and rate. The interaction of glucose with MLSS and with dye and the interaction of MLSS with glucose and with dye were significant when the response was decolorization efficiency and rate, respectively. When COD removal was the response, the effect of change in glucose and MLSS concentration and the interaction between these two factors had statistically significant effect on the response.  相似文献   

Water demand management in Yemen and Jordan: addressing power and interests     

Zeitoun M  Allan T  Al Aulaqi N  Jabarin A  Laamrani H 《The Geographical journal》2012,178(1):54-66

This paper investigates the extent to which entrenched interests of stakeholder groups both maintain water use practice, and may be confronted. The focus is on the agricultural sectors of Yemen and Jordan, where water resource policymakers face resistance in their attempts to reduce water use to environmentally sustainable levels through implementation of water demand management (WDM) activities. Some farmers in both countries that have invested in irrigated production of high-value crops (such as qat and bananas) benefit from a political economy that encourages increased rather than reduced water consumption. The resultant over-exploitation of water resources affects groups in unequal measures. Stakeholder analysis demonstrates that the more ‘powerful’ groups (chiefly the large landowners and the political elites, as well as the ministries of irrigation over which they exert influence) are generally opposed to reform in water use, while the proponents of WDM (e.g. water resource managers, environmental ministries and NGOs, and the international donor community) are found to have minimal influence over water use policy and decisionmaking. Efforts and ideas attempted by this latter group to challenge the status quo are classified here as either (a) influencing or (b) challenging the power asymmetry, and the merits and limits of both approaches are discussed. The interpretation of evidence suggests current practice is likely to endure, but may be more effectively challenged if a long-term approach is taken with an awareness of opportunities generated by windows of opportunity and the participation of ‘overlap groups’.  相似文献   

Using of gene expression programming and climatic data for forecasting flow discharge by considering trend,normality, and stationarity analysis     

Arash Adib  Milad Mahmoudian Kafshgar Kalaee  Mohammad Mahmoudian Shoushtari  Keivan Khalili 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(9):208

In this research, the main hydrological characteristics (such as trend, stationarity, and normalization of hydrological data) of the Kasilian watershed are considered from 1970 to 2009. For forecasting of discharge, gene expression programming (GEP) method is applied. Normality and stationarity of time series are necessary for application of GEP method. For this purpose, third edition of Mann-Kendall trend test and skewness test are used for detection of trend and normalization of data, respectively. Also, five methods are applied for detection of stationarity of data. Modified Mann-Kendall trend test and Theil and Sen’s median slope method illustrate that annual and monthly precipitation data have slight decreasing trend, annual and monthly discharge data have insignificant decreasing trend, and annual and monthly temperature data have an increasing trend. Skewness test illustrates that annual, monthly, and daily discharge and precipitation data are not normal. By using logarithm function, skewness is minimized and symmetry of data is improved. After normalization of time series by logarithm function, five methods are applied for testing of stationarity of time series. These methods show that different normalized time series are stationarity and stationarity of time series is improved by elimination of periodic properties of data. For forecasting of daily discharge by GEP method, 85% of data are used for training and 15% of data are used for testing. By using data of 3 days ago, the GEP has the best efficiency. Coefficient of correlation (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are 0.9, 0.495 lit/s, 0.288 lit/s, and 0.053, respectively.  相似文献   

Zur Geochemie einiger Pegmatite der Ostalpen     

Dr. H. Khalili 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1972,18(2):79-104

Zusammenfassung 139 Proben von Gesteinen und Mineralen des Villacher Granites und von Pegmatitvorkommen im Kärntner Altkristallin (Kärnten/Österreich) sowie vergleichsweise 13 Proben von anderen Pegmatiten der Ostalpen und solchen der Böhmischen Masse wurden mit Hilfe flammenphotometrischer, emissionsspektrographischer, röntgenfluoreszenzspektrometrischer und teilweise auch gammaspektrometrischer Methoden auf die Elemente Li, Na, K, Rb, Be, Ca, Sr, Ba, B, Sc, Y, Yb, (Th, U), Ti, Zr, Ni und Ga analysiert.Es konnte gezeigt werden, daß zwischen dem voralpidischen Villacher Granit und dem pegmatitischen und aplitischen Ganggefolge im Kärntner Altkristallin zwischen Ossiacher See und Drautal Blutsverwandtschaft bestehen sollte.Mit zunehmender Größe des Pegmatitvorkommens und offenbar auch mit Annäherung an den Granit nimmt der Gehalt an Li, Rb, Be, B, Ga und Pb zu, der Gehalt an Ca, Sr, Ba, Ti, Sc u. a. hingegen ab. Das K/Rb-Verhältnis ist ebenso ein verläßlicher Indikator. In kleineren Pegmatitkörpern nähert sich der Gehalt der pegmatophilen Spurenelemente dem des Nebengesteins.Es werden Abhängigkeiten zwischen Mindestkonzentrationen und Mineralisationen gefunden: Granite der Ostalpen mit Berylliumgehalten über 5 ppm Be lassen Beryllmineralisationen in ihren Pegmatiten erwarten. In Pegmatit-Proben mit über 50 ppm Be sind unter dem Mikroskop Beryllnädelchen nachweisbar.Zinnstein tritt auf, wenn das Pegmatitgestein mehr als 20 ppm Sn enthält, Spodumen bei>0,1% Li und Xenotim bei>20 ppm Y.

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Contribution to the geochemistry of some pegmatites in the Eastern Alps

Summary 139 samples of rocks and minerals from the granite of Villach and from pegmatites of the Carinthian Old Cristalline Complex (Austria) and additional 13 samples for comparison purposes from other pegmatites in the Eastern Alps and the Bohemian Mass were analyzed for the elements Li, Na, K, Rb, Be, Ca, Sr, Ba, B, Sc, Y, Yb, (Th, U), Ti, Zr, Mn, Co, Ni, and Ga using flamephotometric, emission-spectrographic, x-ray-fluorescence spectrometric and partially gamma-spectrometric methods.It could be shown that the prealpidic granite of Villach and the pegmatites of the Carinthian Old Cristalline Complex lying between the Lake of Ossiach and the Drau Valley are probably consanquineous. The contents of Li, Rb, Be, B, Ga, and Pb increase with the size of the pegmatite and with increasing proximity to the granite. Other elements, like Ca, Sr, Ba, Ti, Sc, show the reverse relation.Also the K/Rb-ratio is a good indicator. The trace-element content of small pegmatite bodies approaches that of the wall rocks.Relationships between the concentration of some elements and the mineralization have been found: One may expect beryllium minerals in pegmatites of granites of the Eastern Alps if the granite contains more than 5 ppm Be. Pegmatites samples containing more than 50 ppm Be show needles of beryll under the microscope. Cassiterite appeares, if the content of the pegmatitic rock reaches 20 ppm Sn, spodumen, if it exceeds 0,1% Li, and Xenotim, if it exceeds 20 ppm Y.

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Mit 7 Abbildungen  相似文献   

Earthquake Hazard Assessment in the Oran Region (Northwest Algeria)   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

Bouhadad  Youcef  Laouami  Nasser 《Natural Hazards》2002,26(3):227-243

This paper deals with the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis carried out in the Oran region, situated in the Northwest of Algeria. This part of Algeriawas historically struck by strong earthquakes. It was particularly affected during theOctober 9, 1790 Oran earthquake of intensity X. The main purpose of this work is to assessseismic hazard on rocks in order to provide engineers and planners with a basic tool for seismicrisk mitigation. The probabilistic approach is used in order to take into account uncertaintiesin seismic hazard assessment. Seismic sources are defined in the light of the most recentresults obtained from seismotectonics analyses carried out in North Algeria.Source parameters such as b-values, slip rate and maximum magnitude are assessed for eachseismic source. The attenuation of ground shaking motion with distance is estimated byusing attenuation relationships developed elsewhere throughout the world (Sadigh et al., 1993; Ambraseys and Bommer, 1991). The two relationships agree well with the local data. Differentchoices of source parameter values and attenuation relationships are assigned weights in alogic tree model. Results are presented as relationships between values of peak groundacceleration (PGA) and annual frequency of exceedance, and maps of hazard for returnperiods of 200 years and 500 years. A maximum peak ground acceleration of 0.42 g is obtainedfor the Oran site for a return period of 500 years.  相似文献